What Moves Oil Prices

Figures from EIA data; latest published observations: WTI Oct 20, 2026, Brent Oct 20, 2026.

Since EIA's daily records began on Jan 2, 1986, the published WTI spot price has ranged from −$36.98 to $145.31 per barrel. Prices respond to several forces at once; no single factor explains a large move on its own.

Supply

OPEC members' oil exports account for around half of the oil traded internationally, so signals about OPEC production, especially from Saudi Arabia, and about OPEC's spare production capacity can move prices. [EIA] Production outside OPEC, including in the United States, matters too.

Inventories

Petroleum inventories act as the balancing point between supply and demand; they are both a signal of the market balance and a physical buffer. [EIA] The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report publishes U.S. inventory data. [EIA]

Financial markets and the dollar

Crude oil is mainly priced and traded in U.S. dollars, and its relationship with the dollar is complex. Futures, options and other derivatives, traded mainly on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the United States, are also part of how prices form. [EIA]

Episodes in the record

• 1998: WTI fell as low as $10.82 on Dec 10, 1998. The EIA attributed the late-1998 decline to the Asian financial crisis slowing demand growth while extra supply from Iraq entered the market. [EIA]
• 2008: WTI reached $145.31 on Jul 3, 2008, then fell to $30.28 by Dec 23, 2008. The EIA cited strong global demand and low surplus production capacity for the run-up, and slowing economic growth for the decline. [EIA]
• 2014–2016: WTI fell from $107.95 (Jun 20, 2014) to $26.19 (Feb 11, 2016). U.S. oil production growth in 2014 was the largest in more than 100 years, [EIA] and on November 27, 2014, OPEC left its production target unchanged, after which prices fell further. [EIA]
• 2020: responses to the COVID-19 pandemic cut global petroleum demand steeply, [EIA] and low liquidity and limited storage at Cushing pushed expiring WTI futures below zero. [EIA] EIA's spot price fell to −$36.98 on Apr 20, 2020.

See oil price records for the largest daily moves, and inflation-adjusted prices to compare past peaks in constant dollars.